🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."