Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

As per the data, twice all season has the team had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

  • The main striker could start scoring again.
  • The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Tracey Nguyen
Tracey Nguyen

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in the Canadian betting industry, specializing in odds analysis and responsible gambling practices.