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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd